A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
